The Board: March 2025
This month we look at: a deep dive into tariff-impacted product prices, how to set pars to lower food and bar costs, tax prep tips, inflation and national restaurant sales trends from February.
I don't know about you, but I am ready for spring and by spring I mean warm weather even if that means being forced to keep one of those little travel tissue packs on me at all times and paying a small fortune to whoever makes Claritin-D.
Luckily, March brings us more to celebrate than just the start of spring, as it's also Women's History Month! To celebrate and recognize the impact and achievements women have made in our industry, we've put together a Women's History Month Gift Guide full of tasty treats and thoughtful gifts. So, check it out and help support a woman-owned or led restaurant business.
Along with anticipating warmer weather, there has been much anticipation over the last month around tariffs, and particularly how they could impact our industry. For this reason, we've included some resources below, as well as chosen our item(s) to watch this month to specifically look at what products could and have already changed.
Wishing you all a profitable March and be sure to check out our 'Tis the Season section before next month because in the immortal words of Jon Snow, "Taxes are coming".
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- Rachel & the MarginEdge team
P.S. If you took our very, very accurate Restaurant Personality Type quiz, your March mantras are here!

MONTHLY SALES METRICS & UPDATE
The trailing 4-week (28-day) average of year-over-year (YOY) sales for Fast Casual came in at +1.52% and Full Service at -2.67% at the end of February compared to February 2024 sales.
Food costs averaged 28% of sales last month, reflecting a -3% drop from January's average.
ITEM TO WATCH
Tofu and avocados and whiskey (oh my!)
Will they, won't they? Tariffs on Mexican, Canadian and Chinese products have been feeling like an on-again-off-again throuple (polycule?) for American consumers. As of the week of March 10, there are 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, and 10% on imports from China in effect. Last week it was announced that there would be a delay on any Mexican or Canadian products that fall under the existing USMCA agreement (like automobiles) until April 2. Avocados do not fall under that category.
Whether the blanket 25% and 10% tariffs go into effect on April 2 or not, some product prices are moving already, thanks to tariff anticipation and product perishability. Canadian whiskey is shelf stable, so American importers likely already have supply on hand and we may not see price increases due to tariffs for some time. Avocados, on the other hand, are a fresh product and prices are more subject to market conditions.
We've chosen three items to look at this month to see how tariffs could impact their pricing: avocados (Mexico), firm tofu (China), and Crown Royal Canadian whiskey (Canada). Before we get to the numbers, we need to express a big, fat disclaimer that the prices in our charts are not from imported products only, as they include any domestically produced avocados, tofu and whiskey prices too.
Prices for Crown Royal and firm tofu are very consistent, and so far do not show a significant increase in prices. Avocados on the other hand saw a spike the week of January 20 (when tariffs were initially promised to begin), and prices have remained about $0.25 higher than last fall since then. The January bump was reportedly due to tight supply and an extra squeeze from the Super Bowl in early February, but as California crops start producing in the spring, we will hopefully see prices come back down.
Copper Shark | Baltimore, MD
ASK [me] ANYTHING
What's the best way to set pars to lower my food and bar costs?
- Do your research - If you have pars in place already, or not, the first step to making sure they're helping your bottom line is to do a little digging. Talk to your team, especially whoever is doing your ordering, about if they're seeing any products that you're consistently running out of, or throwing away from sitting on the shelf for too long.
You will also need to pull your product sales mix (PMIX) reports from your POS to make sure your current par math is still on par (ba-dum-tss) with your sales. Guest tastes can change quicker than you think, and staying on top of what's selling is crucial to keeping tighter pars and therefore tighter food and bar costs. Gut instinct is great to start, and an incredibly important skillset on its own for running a restaurant, but data/numbers are the quickest and most reliable way to be able to make positive, financially impactful changes.
- Pay attention to holidays, events and food trends - Is Taylor Swift's Eras Tour coming to town next week (a girl can dream)? Or did a new report come out about how french fries have been proven to help prevent chronic illness (still dreaming)? Holidays, events and even food trends can impact your sales, so take extra care to keep on top of them by planning.
Sure, you can't predict when Keith Lee will secretly show up and review your exquisite mango habanero chicken tenders from the front seat of his car, making your restaurant go viral and blowing through your weekly tendies par in 2 hours the next day. But you can plan for sporting events, holidays, reservations and even weather. If a similar event or weather pattern has happened in the past, go back and pull your PMIX numbers from that time to get a better idea of what to expect.
- Take notes - Speaking of going back and looking at past numbers, if you change or update a par because trends have changed, make a quick note about why so you can readjust if things change again. There's nothing worse than staring at a change you made a few weeks ago, not remembering why, and getting stuck trying to decide if you should or shouldn't have made that change. Have your team get in the practice of leaving notes when they make changes, too, for redundancy in case they leave or change roles at your restaurant.
- Organize by vendor vs. product when it makes sense to - If you only use a few vendors, it may make more sense to organize your par sheets by product, so you can breeze through inventory before putting in your weekly orders all at once. If on the other hand you use a lot of vendors who all deliver on different days, you may want to organize your par sheets by vendor so you're making sure your pars are met for each order and delivery.
- Set a regular par review cadence - reviewing pars quarterly may be sufficient, but if you're a high volume operation, monthly or bi-weekly can make more of an impact on your bottom line by keeping ordering and prep really dialed in.
- Use smart inventory tools to help monitor - It takes a lot of time to review and set your pars, and while more frequent reviews lead to tighter food and bar costs, the time spent on figuring them out doesn't come for free either. Thankfully, there are tons of smart inventory management tools out there that can help get you the numbers you need to manage pars at a glance.
Tools like an integrated waste log (so you can spot check or confirm what your team is telling you about waste), automated invoice management (so you don't have to remember what you should have on hand based on recent orders), and even smart scales for bar inventory or food prep will help confirm the pars your setting are what they should be. You can track waste, invoices and liquor inventory manually, but if you have a lean team or are growing quickly, putting tools in place that integrate (aka talk to each other on their own) to track that stuff for you might be worth the investment.
💬 Ask [me] anything!
Really. Each month we’ll take a look at the questions we get and answer one here. Have a question about our product, accounting, or restaurant operations in general? 💌 Email me or message us on our social media channels.
Taft's Brewing | Cincinnati, OH
THE ECONOMY
Inflation Up (but lower than expected)
The February 2025 Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is in, and indicates the following month-over-month changes in food inflation:
- Overall Food Inflation: Up 0.2% from January, and is up 2.6% YOY.
- Food At Home: No change from January, and is up 1.9% YOY.
- Food Away from Home: Up 0.4% from January, and is up 3.7% YOY.
- Limited Service Meals: Up 0.3% from January and by 3.5% YOY.
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Full Service Meals: Up 0.4% from January, and by 3.7% YOY.
Overall, inflation came in at 0.2% up from January, which is still increasing, but at a much softer rate than what was expected. Year-over-year inflation is at 2.8% which is a drop from last month's YoY. Food at home did not change last month, which was due to fruit, vegetable and nonalcoholic drink decreases offsetting the increases for eggs, beef, poultry and fish. Here's our most recent egg prices chart if you're curious.
Tl;dr - YOY restaurant inflation went back up last month, groceries stayed the same.
Salt & Vine | Olney, MD
'TIS THE SEASON
2025 tax prep tips for restaurant operators
Tax season is upon us! With just a few weeks left before the April 15th filing deadline, we're sharing a few restaurateur tax prep tips for 2025 from our friends at the Harmony Group to keep you on track and ready to establish yourself as your accountant and tax preparer's favorite client.
- Get your records ready: Ideally you have been doing this year round, but the start of the year is the time to gather and categorize all financial documents, including bank statements, credit card statements, receipts, invoices, payroll records, and any income records, because you quite literally cannot file your taxes without these (well, you could... but you definitely shouldn't)! Be sure to check that you've got ahold of both digital and paper records.
- Maximize your deductions: Identify all deductible expenses, such as equipment, wages, utilities, and charitable contributions, as well as marketing and advertising, professional service fees, utilities, rent, and insurance premiums that can also help to reduce taxable income.
- File 1099-NECs for any independent contractors: If you hired a marketing freelancer, business consultant or a super sick KISS cover band, make sure you're reporting any payments over $600 to them by filing 1099-NEC forms and that you have their updated W-9 forms on file.
- Partnerships and S-Corps: If your business operates as a partnership or S-corp, you'll need to file 1065 forms and distribute Schedule K-1s to partners or shareholders for personal tax filings. These individualized forms are crucial for partners and shareholders to accurately file their personal tax returns, and you should expect to receive one from them too.
- Evaluate your quarterly tax payments: If you want better cash flow year round and also want to avoid underpayment penalties, it's important to assess any shortfalls from the previous year for planning your Q1 2025 tax payments. This might look like increasing your next few estimated payments to cover any underpaid taxes from the year before.
If you're hungry for more, there are 5 more tips to check out on their full blog here. Happy tax season!
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